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“I do not believe that the ECB has hit the effective lower bound on policy rates.” & Christine Lagarde, 1956 – present, incoming president of the ECB “It will not be long before the spread of negative interest rates reaches the U.S.” & Alan Greenspan, 1926 – present, former chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987-2006   Will Interest Rate Cuts Be Enough to Forestall a Recession? In his widely… Read More

“In other words, … an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. So, I think that is a valid way to think about policy in this era.” & Jerome Powell, 1953 – present, Chairman of the Federal Reserve   Caught Between a Trade War and Interest Rate Cuts As one of the world’s greatest military leaders and governor of the Roman province of Gaul (modern-day France and Belgium),… Read More

“The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions!” & Paul A. Samuelson, 1915 – 2009, first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences   Fed’s Policy Pivot Triggers a Global Snap-back Rally Originally written in response to the popular desire for ghost stories around Christmastime, Scottish author R. L. Stevenson’s popular novella “Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” was an immediate success in both… Read More

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” & Peter Lynch, 1944 – present, legendary manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund   Change Is the Investor’s Only Constant The pre-Socratic Greek philosopher Heraclitus of Ephesus (c. 535 BC) was known to his contemporaries as the philosopher of eternal change. While very little of his work has been preserved… Read More

“There is no question that some strikes are called balls, and some balls are called strikes, but you’re far better off forgetting the calls that hurt you and concentrating on that next pitch, or that next turn at bat.” & Ted Williams, 1918 – 2002, American professional baseball player and manager.   U.S. Economy Hits Sweet Spot Nicknamed ‘The Kid’, ‘Teddy Ballgame’ and ‘The Splendid Splinter’, baseball legend Ted Williams… Read More

“I think we do need to try to not just rely on the central bank to, in its wisdom adjust interest rates, but allow for people to avoid being exposed to inflation risk.” & Robert J. Shiller, 1946 – present, American Nobel Laureate, economist, and best-selling author Ways to Stay Ahead of Inflation “Oh, the miserable and calamitous spectacle! May mine eyes never behold the like, who now saw above… Read More

“We don’t manage the stock market,” but “it enters into our thinking. I think the general thing is that the stock market is not the economy.” & Jerome Powell, 1953 – present, Federal Reserve Chair in his first appearance on Capitol Hill Stability Is Destabilizing Capitalist economies have always been beset by a cycle of boom and bust. The term ‘boom-bust cycle’ (also known as ‘business cycle’ or ‘economic cycle’)… Read More

“Stocks are ‘elevated’ but ‘when we look at other indicators of financial stability… there is nothing flashing red, or even orange.” & Janet Yellen, 1946 – present, Federal Reserve Chair at her last Fed rate-setting meeting After a Stellar 2017, Is This as Good as it Gets or Is More to Come in 2018? We are all familiar with the famous children’s rhyme, “sticks and stones may break my bones,… Read More

“We’ve been growing at 1.5% to 2% in spite of stupidity and political gridlock because the American business sector is powerful and strong and is going to grow regardless.” & Jamie Dimon, 1956 – present, Chief Executive Officer of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.   It’s a Puzzlement Set in the early 1860’s Bangkok, the musical masterpiece ‘The King and I’ by composer Richard Rodgers and dramatist Oscar Hammerstein tells… Read More

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect…. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd” & Warren Buffett, 1930 – present, American business magnate and investor Let the Good Times Roll, but Stay Disciplined In early February this year, New Zealand experienced one of the worst whale stranding’s in history. Collectively, more than 600 pilot whales… Read More